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Hicks Partners Newsletter - Insights and Strategies for April 7, 2026

Hicks Partners Newsletter - Insights and Strategies for April 7, 2026

Ohio Mayors Alliance Calls for Core Cities Strategy; Data Centers Not Driving Up Electricity Prices, New Research Finds; Ohio Housing Finance Agency Finalizes OLIHTC Guidelines; ODOT's TRAC Approves $123.1 Million for Major Transportation Projects


April 7, 2026 


Ohio Mayors Alliance Calls for Core Cities Strategy


New U.S. Census Bureau data showing slowed national population growth underscores a troubling reality for Ohio: without sustained growth in the Columbus metro area, Ohio’s population would have flatlined over the past year.

The numbers tell a longer story. Ohio's congressional delegation has shrunk from 24 seats in the 1960s to just 15 today, a loss of seats every decade that reflects not only diminished national political clout, but a steady erosion of long-term economic power.

The Ohio Mayors Alliance has released a new report outlining both the challenge and a path forward:

  • By 2050, 74 of Ohio's 88 counties are projected to lose population
  • Ohio's six largest metro areas generate over 80% of the state's $885 billion GDP
  • Metro regions account for 76% of Ohio jobs and roughly 90% of state GDP
  • Ohio is the only Midwestern state with three metro regions exceeding 2 million residents and three additional mid-sized metros exceeding 600,000

Unlike most states which depend on a single large metro to drive statewide growth, Ohio's balanced distribution of cities across its geography represents a distinctive competitive advantage. Rural counties proximate to urban centers consistently show higher GDP output and greater economic opportunity, underscoring the interdependency of city and countryside.

The report calls for a coordinated Core Cities Strategy that targets growth in communities built to absorb it by revitalizing legacy downtowns, leveraging existing infrastructure, and constraining sprawl into productive agricultural land.

  The report lands as gubernatorial candidates begin defining their economic agendas, highlighting a core tension: Ohio’s growth is concentrated in its metro regions, while its politics remain geographically distributed. How candidates reconcile that gap will signal the next administration’s approach to growth—and governance. 

Data Centers Not Driving Up Electricity Prices, New Research Finds


A new analysis from the Institute for Energy Research challenges a growing narrative that data centers are driving up electricity costs. A closer look at the data suggests that the relationship is far more nuanced.

Researchers analyzed U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on electricity prices and sales across all 50 states, comparing those figures with state-level data center concentrations. The findings show no statistically significant correlation between the number of data centers in a state and either current electricity prices or long-term price trends.

In fact, the top 10 data center states, which include VA, TX, CA, IL and OH, report average electricity prices of 14.46¢/kWh, nearly identical to the 14.39¢/kWh average in all other states.

The analysis points to a more important takeaway: electricity prices are shaped primarily by system costs, fuel prices, and regulatory policy – not simply by demand from large users.

Electric grids are capital-intensive systems with significant fixed costs tied to generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure. These costs must be recovered regardless of how much electricity is used.

In states where electricity demand has stagnated or declined, those fixed costs are spread across fewer kilowatt hours, which puts upward pressure on rates. Conversely, in regions experiencing growth, expanding demand can help distribute costs across a larger base of customers—potentially moderating rate increases when paired with needed infrastructure investment and planning.

Fuel costs, along with state policy decisions around generation mix, environmental compliance, and grid modernization also play a significant role in determining electricity prices. These factors often have a more direct and measurable impact than the presence of individual large-load customers.

Ohio, which ranks among the top data center states nationally, sits at the center of this discussion as policymakers consider how to meet increasing electricity demand driven by artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and broader economic growth.

The question facing Ohio is not simply whether demand is increasing, but how that demand is integrated into the system—including the pace of new generation development, transmission upgrades, and coordination with utilities and grid operators.

  The report helps to reframe a policy debate that has, in some cases, focused narrowly on data centers as a cost driver. For Ohio, the more relevant issue is ensuring that growing demand is matched with timely infrastructure investment and sound regulatory policy. When managed effectively, expanding load from sectors like data centers can support system efficiency and help stabilize costs over time—rather than driving them higher. 

Ohio Housing Finance Agency Finalizes OLIHTC Guidelines


The Ohio Housing Finance Agency (OHFA) has released final guidelines for the State Fiscal Year 2027 Ohio Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (OLIHTC) program that is scheduled to sunset June 2027.

 

Created by the 135th General Assembly, OLIHTC supplements the federal LIHTC by allowing owners of qualifying affordable rental developments to claim state tax credits over a 10-year period. Credits are exchanged by investors and syndicators for equity to finance affordable rental construction throughout Ohio.

 

Key program parameters for SFY 2027 include:

  • Credit ceiling: $100 million annually, representing the full 10-year credit period amount
  • Funding pools: $75 million (75%) for metropolitan counties; $25 million (25%) for rural counties
  • Credit cap per project: Up to $1 million annually in metro counties; $1.25 million in rural counties
  • Paired requirement: All OLIHTC awards must be paired with a federal 4% LIHTC reservation and a 42(m) Letter of Eligibility from OHFA
  • Eligible projects: New construction and adaptive reuse only; rehabilitation projects are ineligible
  • Proposal applications due: June 8, 2026

 

In SFY 2027, OHFA will deploy OLIHTC exclusively as gap financing on 4% LIHTC proposals that are not financially feasible without the state credit.

  OHFA’s 2027 guidelines underscore a near-term strategy to stretch existing resources, but they also highlight a looming policy gap. Housing demand across all income levels remains strong since OLIHTC’s creation. If the program is allowed to sunset, policymakers will risk worsening a tight housing market. 

ODOT's TRAC Approves $123.1 Million for Major Transportation Projects


Ohio's Transportation Review Advisory Council (TRAC) has approved a draft funding list totaling $123.1 million for 11 major new construction projects spanning 8 counties, advancing everything from interstate interchange upgrades to light rail reconstruction.

 

The draft allocates $103.6 million across six Tier I construction projects scheduled for fiscal years 2027–2028:

  • $35 million (FY2027) for interchange and ramp improvements at I-71/Snow Road in Brook Park, Cuyahoga County
  • $27 million (FY2028) for a new Diverging Diamond Interchange at I-75 and Millikin Road in Butler County
  • $17.6 million (FY2027) for roadway improvements tied to the Dayton International Airport Northeast Logistics project in Montgomery County
  • $10 million (FY2027) for light rail track reconstruction for the Greater Cleveland Regional Transit Authority
  • $8.7 million (FY2028) for roadway widening on Alum Creek Drive in Franklin County
  • $5.3 million (FY2027) for roadway enhancements on SR 172 in Canton, Stark County

 

The remaining $19.5 million supports five Tier II project development efforts, including Franklin County interchange improvements at I-71/I-270 and SR 315/Lane Avenue, a US 23 intersection upgrade in Delaware County, a Bluegrass Parkway extension in Fayette County, and I-70/I-675 interchange work in Clark County.

  Central Ohio accounts for multiple projects on both tiers, a reflection of continued growth pressures throughout Columbus' roads and interchange networks. Clients with interests in logistics, freight, or site selection should monitor Tier II advancement closely, as today's planning dollars often precede construction commitments by a cycle or two.

Access our curated list of federal grants, including the USDOT Safe Streets and Roads for All Grant (up to $25 million) and the DHS Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities Grant (up to $150 million).

Review the list of ongoing grant opportunities, click the link below. 

ICYMI: Extra Insights


About Us

Hicks Partners, LLC is a multidisciplinary business consulting firm providing public relations, government affairs and business development services. We deliver powerful results for clients seeking to enhance their image, impact policy decisions, and grow their bottom line.
Contact us at Info@HicksPartners.com or at (614) 221-2800.
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